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Venezuela oil rebound hinges on services for heavier crude growth
Rystad Energy projects Venezuela crude production could rise about 17% from Q4 2025 to Q4 2028, driven mainly by existing assets rather than new discoveries.
OilPrice says Venezuela’s upstream sector is shifting from the question of whether the country can reopen its oil industry to whether it can deliver a sustained production recovery after hydrocarbon reforms and broader geopolitical developments in early 2026.
Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela’s crude production could increase by roughly 17%, or about 194,000 barrels per day, between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2028. The forecast depends largely on operational execution, with growth expected to come primarily from already producing assets instead of large-scale new discoveries.
The outlet notes that near-term gains are set to be led by heavier crude grades. About three-quarters of output through 2028 is expected to be heavy, extra-heavy crude and bitumen, with the Orinoco Oil Belt contributing around 60% of total production.
OilPrice adds that this makes practical access and ongoing work more central than reserve additions, including supplies such as diluents, workover activity, infill drilling, and mature field management. It also says international oil companies are expected to supply nearly two-thirds of the forecast production increase through 2028, with Chevron named as the largest contributor, followed by other IOCs.
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