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Waller warns hotter CPI could push near-term rate hike
Action Forex reports Fed funds futures now price a 77% chance of a September rate hike, up from about 58% a week earlier.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he is watching Tuesday’s CPI closely, warning that another upside surprise could lead the FOMC to consider raising interest rates in the near term. He described policy as being at a crossroads and said he would treat another higher inflation reading as a signal rather than noise.
Waller’s comments also pointed to rising inflation risks tied to geopolitics, noting that Brent crude has moved above $85 and could keep energy prices reinforcing broader inflation pressures. He added that inflation may be spreading beyond tariffs and energy costs, with nearly 70% of core services categories showing three-month and twelve-month inflation above 3%.
While he acknowledged there is still a credible case for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% goal without changing policy, he argued the Fed should not wait too long if inflation proves more persistent than expected. He said it would take several months of lower readings to become convinced that inflation is sustainably moving back toward target.
Markets will focus on the June CPI release as the next major policy test, and Waller’s remarks come ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony later in the day, where investors will look for confirmation of the Fed’s outlook. Action Forex reports Fed funds futures imply a 77% probability of a September rate hike, up sharply from around 58% just a week earlier.
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