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TotalEnergies expects higher Q2 cash flow on refining and oil trading strength
The company also cut its estimated Middle East impact for Q2 to about 210,000 boe/d, below its prior quarter guidance of 360,000 boe/d.
TotalEnergies said it expects higher second-quarter profits, driven by stronger refining margins, improved oil trading results, and higher cash flows from its oil production, as oil prices rose and fuel markets tightened following the Iran war, OilPrice reported. In an earnings preview on Thursday, the French supermajor projected downstream results and cash flow to increase sharply versus the first quarter of 2026. It said refining and petrochemical margins are expected to support the improvement, alongside oil trading results expected to stay at the same strong level as in the first quarter.
TotalEnergies also revised downward its estimate of how much the Middle East conflict would affect Q2, lowering the impact to around 210,000 boe/d from the 360,000 boe/d guidance it communicated last quarter. The company attributed the change to the ramp-up of production in offshore United Arab Emirates during the quarter and a restart of production in other regional countries during June.
For the Exploration and Production division, TotalEnergies forecast cash flows to be about $1 billion higher than in the first quarter, even as E&P results are expected to be affected by accounting effects related to production that was not lifted, according to OilPrice.