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Wells Fargo lifts 2026 GDP outlook, trims global CPI estimate to 4.3%

The bank ties the CPI cut to a slightly lower oil price path and expects different central bank moves across regions.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Wells Fargo Economics raised its global GDP forecast for 2026 to 2.7% while trimming its global CPI estimate to 4.3%, citing a slightly lower oil price path, according to FXStreet.

The outlook also points to divergent central bank paths, with expectations of further final hikes from the ECB, RBA, and BoJ, and a possible short cycle from the Bank of England.

Wells Fargo expects the Bank of Canada to hold, while central banks in emerging markets take mixed approaches, with further easing expected from China’s central bank as domestic demand remains soft, and Brazil continuing to cut as inflation moderates.

For other emerging markets, the bank expects tightening from the Reserve Bank of India and says Banxico is likely to remain on hold, as it assesses policy divergence across the bloc.

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