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Global insurance premium growth expected to slow sharply in 2026
Swiss Re Institute projects global real premium growth of 1.3% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025, with non life growth weakening to 0.6% amid competitive pricing.
Global insurance industry growth is expected to slow markedly as insurers absorb more shocks in a more fragmented global economy, according to the Swiss Re Institute. The reinsurance and risk institute forecasts global real premium growth of 1.3% in 2026, easing from a 3.9% cyclical peak in 2025, before returning to a long term trend rate of 2%.
The slowdown is forecast to be uneven across lines. Swiss Re Institute expects non life real premium growth to soften to 0.6% in 2026, pressured by competitive pricing and slowing economic momentum, while life insurance growth is projected to hold up better at 2.3% in real terms, supported by higher yields.
Beyond pricing, the report points to recent geopolitical shocks. It cites the Middle East conflict as the fourth major global supply shock in six years, and says it has lifted the reinsurer’s global consumer price inflation forecast by 1.0 percentage point to 4.0% for 2026, while global real GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.5%.
Swiss Re Institute also highlighted continued pressure in property and casualty markets. It projects non life profitability will cool, with return on equity falling from a 14% high in 2025 to 11.4% in 2026 and 7.7% by 2028, and forecasts global P and C underwriting margins to swing from 3.2% of net premiums earned in 2026 to negative 1.6% by 2028. Marsh’s commercial insurance composite price index fell 5% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, including a 9% drop in global property pricing, while U.S. casualty rates excluding workers’ compensation rose 12%.