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Gold faces upside limits as a firmer dollar and Fed risks weigh
TD Securities says speculative long exposure in gold has been reduced and expects gold to hold near support around $3,900 per ounce as late-2026 Fed hikes are increasingly priced.
TD Securities commodity strategists, led by Bart Melek, said gold upside appears capped by a stronger US dollar and growing concerns around Federal Reserve risks.
The firm noted that gold investors have reduced long exposure, citing higher oil prices tied to the US Iran conflict as a threat to recent progress on disinflation.
FXStreet also highlighted that markets are increasingly pricing a late-2026 Fed hike, which TD Securities expects to raise carry and opportunity costs versus gold, weighing on speculative length.
TD Securities pointed to support near $3,900 per ounce, framing gold as likely to stay around that level rather than extend recent gains amid dollar strength expectations.
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