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China faces shrinking gaokao cohort, urging university reforms to attract talent
China’s gaokao enrollment fell to 12.9 million last month from 13.3 million a year earlier, amid broader global fertility declines.
SCMP Economy says China needs to move quickly to position its universities as a global education hub as the country confronts a shrinking pool of future students. The outlet points to last month’s gaokao, with 12.9 million students sitting for the exam, down for a second year and lower than 13.3 million the year before.
The story links the demographic pressure to falling fertility, noting that China’s births are now below 8 million annually, a record low. It adds that China has more than 3,100 universities, which the piece says will increasingly compete for a smaller cohort over the coming years.
SCMP Economy broadens the case to global trends, citing a worldwide fertility rate decline from 2.9 births per woman in 1994 to 2.2 in 2024, with more than half of countries and territories now below replacement levels. The outlet argues that as the distribution of talent becomes more important, international students are likely to be a critical component of that competition.
The article also compares regions, noting that fertility declines have reached places that were previously seen as demographic-growth strongholds, including Bangladesh and South Asia. It says South Asia’s fertility rate was 2.0 in 2024, and it describes sustained declines even in sub-Saharan Africa, though it cautions that the world will not suddenly run out of young people.