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VanEck links Bitcoin lull to tightening supply and cautious derivatives

Bitcoin traded in a holding range around $63,700, while VanEck said miner economics are near multi-year lows and derivatives positioning looks defensive.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin’s quiet summer trading is masking a tightening supply base, but VanEck cautioned that near-term conditions still look cautious, with derivatives signaling fear and miner economics close to multi-year lows, even as long-term holders keep accumulating, according to Bitcoin Magazine. In VanEck’s view, the market looks more like consolidation than a bottom. Bitcoin spent the past month holding around $63,700, closing July 12 at $63,742, flat versus a month earlier, but down 33% from its six-month high and 14% below its 200-day moving average near $74,000. VanEck pointed to softer spot activity and lower volatility during the lull. Spot volume averaged about $5.1 billion per day over the prior 30 days, down roughly 29% from post-2019 norms, while realized volatility slipped to 30.4% annualized versus 43% over the trailing year and below a long-run average near 81%. The firm also highlighted defensive crypto derivatives. The one-month put/call implied volatility skew widened to +11.4 percentage points, options premium fell 23% to $613.6 million, and the put/call premium ratio rose to 1.49 versus an average near 0.71. Perpetual-futures funding averaged about +4.5% over 30 days, far below the long-run +8.4%, and VanEck said it sees below-average forward returns over the 30-to-180-day window until specific “bottom” markers appear, including a skew past +15 points or funding flipping negative.

Latest closeBitcoin $81,906.63 ▼1.4%

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