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Grayscale says Bitcoin could have already hit its bear-market low

The firm links its call to the Fed meeting July 29 and the Clarity Act facing an August 7 Senate deadline.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl argued in a note that Bitcoin may have already reached its cycle low, but said the view depends on the Federal Reserve holding off on further rate hikes, with the next key catalyst arriving at the Fed meeting on July 29.

Grayscale rejected the traditional four-year cycle framework that points to a potential bottom in September or October and typically involves an average 80% drawdown. Instead, the firm framed Bitcoin as behaving more like a macroeconomic asset, suggesting its path will be driven by macro forces rather than halving timing alone.

In support of its conditional stance, Grayscale noted that Bitcoin was trading around $65,000 and had risen more than 10% from its early-July low of $57,717. The firm also said spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products have recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows over seven straight sessions.

At the same time, Grayscale cautioned that Bitcoin remains on a weakening monthly bearish trend that can last for a couple more months. Under the four-year model it dismissed, the firm said historical patterns would imply a further decline toward roughly $50,000 before a later rebound, and it pointed to the Clarity Act deadline of August 7 as another near-term focus.

Latest closeBitcoin $65,078.09 ▼1.6%

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