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Grayscale says Bitcoin could have bottomed before its cycle low

Grayscale points to macro drivers as more important for Bitcoin’s price, citing the Fed’s July 29 decision as the next key catalyst.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Grayscale said Bitcoin’s price may have bottomed earlier than the typical four year cycle, which would put the cycle low in September or October, according to Cointelegraph.

Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl argued that Bitcoin has “grown up” as an asset and is increasingly driven by macroeconomic factors, saying that if the Fed avoids rate hikes and economic growth holds up, Bitcoin’s price may have already found a floor.

The note also tied the outlook to the rate path, with Cointelegraph saying the Fed’s next interest rate decision is due on July 29 and markets are pricing a 66 percent chance of rates being held steady, down from 88 percent a week earlier, based on CME Group’s Fedwatch tool.

Pandl said prior Bitcoin bear markets have coincided with slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates, while also warning that regulatory uncertainty could still weigh on price action, including a June 26 view that if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, some treasury companies may continue deleveraging and Bitcoin could fall moderately further.

Latest closeBitcoin $65,665.10 ▼0.7%

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