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Brent stays near $100 as supply risks lift the oil premium
BNY says institutional energy flows have shifted from selling to re-accumulation, with U.S. energy flows at the 83rd percentile on the week and 90th percentile monthly.
Brent has slipped slightly below $100 but remains supported by renewed supply risk concerns, with tensions in the Middle East, disruptions tied to the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and a Kazakhstan export halt keeping an oil premium in place, according to BNY’s Geoff Yu.
BNY also pointed to investor positioning changes, saying institutional energy flows have moved decisively from liquidation to re-accumulation since March, with July described as an inflection point after heavy selling into the first oil shock and a recovery phase in May and June.
The note says the oil surge is feeding directly into inflation and interest rate anxiety, contributing to higher U.S. and German yields as markets price greater central bank pressure.
BNY added that the broader risk is that military escalation could turn into a macro shock through energy, bonds and equities, while also noting that energy holdings remain below early March levels, suggesting the trade is not yet crowded.
Latest closeBrent $100.54 ▲6.9%