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South Africa braces for record corn harvest amid rising costs
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates South Africa will harvest 17.9 million tonnes in 2025-26, with corn exports forecast to fall 30% to 2.5 million tonnes in 2026-27.
South Africa is currently harvesting what the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects as the largest corn crop on record, estimated at 17.9 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing season.
The FAS said the corn sector is expected to stay stable in 2026-27 even with a bearish price backdrop, projecting corn area to hold at 3 million hectares and output to ease to 16.3 million tonnes. Beginning stocks are forecast to rise from 2.9 million tonnes in 2025-26 to 3.2 million tonnes in 2026-27, supporting domestic and regional demand.
Exports are expected to weaken in 2026-27, with shipments forecast at 2.5 million tonnes, down 30% from 3.5 million tonnes in the previous period. The FAS attributed near-term pressure to weak price signals alongside higher input costs.
The FAS added that fertilizer and fuel costs, which together account for roughly half of total corn input costs, have risen in part due to the conflict in the Middle East. It also flagged agronomic risk from forecasts of a potential El Niño pattern that could bring a drier-than-normal summer season, while demand growth is supported by population growth and expanding corn consumption.
The report projects South Africa’s corn consumption to remain steady at 14.2 million tonnes in 2025-26 and 14.6 million tonnes in 2026-27. It also cited population growth of about 65 million people as the main driver of demand, noting corn consumption has grown at a compound annual rate of roughly 2% over the past decade.
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