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Bitcoin faces volatile rate and geopolitical catalysts heading into late July

CME FedWatch put the odds of a rate hike at 31% for the July 29 FOMC meeting, with odds later shifting after oil prices fell 8% following a US and Iran pause in strikes.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin traders are heading into the end of July navigating multiple volatility catalysts tied to US inflation and developments in the US-Iran conflict, Cointelegraph reports. The outlet points to how shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy are keeping risk assets unsettled.

Cointelegraph cites the July 29 FOMC meeting as a key focus, noting the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, with Fed chair Kevin Warsh at the helm. It says the odds of a hike were most recently priced at 31% on CME Group’s FedWatch tool, while a hike at the September meeting carried odds as high as 50%.

The report also links macro jitters to oil moves, saying oil prices dropped 8% in early trading Monday after the US and Iran paused strikes. As a result, Cointelegraph says rate hike odds shifted from 37.4% to 33.7%.

Cointelegraph further notes that in addition to inflation expectations, bond market signals are in play. It highlights commentary from Mosaic Asset Company that the 30-year Treasury yield is testing a key breakout level again, after a prior false break above 5% in May, and says this could add pressure as Warsh shapes messaging after the FOMC decision.

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