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EUR/USD holds near monthly lows as Fed, inflation risks loom
The dollar found support from strong US data, including faster PMI growth and initial jobless claims falling at the quickest pace in nearly six decades.
EUR/USD is trading near monthly lows in the final week of July, last around 1.1369, as markets weigh expectations for a potential Fed rate hike at the central bank’s upcoming Tuesday and Wednesday meeting. A modest retreat in energy prices late last week temporarily cooled rate-hike expectations, but the pair remains close to the late-June monthly low and markets still price at least one increase before year-end, according to Action Forex.
The outlook is also shaped by inflation risks tied to a renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with restrictions on energy tanker movements in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea pushing oil and fuel prices higher. At the same time, Action Forex points to stronger US economic data supporting the dollar, including S&P PMIs showing the fastest private business activity growth this year and initial jobless claims falling at the fastest pace in nearly six decades, underscoring labour-market resilience.
Technically, Action Forex says the H4 chart shows a consolidation range around 1.1389, spanning 1.1336 to 1.1413 and nearing completion, with an upside breakout pointing to a corrective move toward 1.1420 before a decline to 1.1313. The same analysis flags bearish momentum from indicators such as MACD and Stochastic, and it also outlines an H1 scenario that could include a move lower toward 1.1390, a bounce to 1.1420, then a slide toward 1.1370 and potentially 1.1313.
Latest closeEUR/USD 1.137 ▼0.3%