Forex
Home›Forex›Major Pairs›Dollar holds near 15-month high as markets await July…
Dollar holds near 15-month high as markets await July 29 Fed decision
The DXY is trading around 101.8, where Fed pricing for a July 29 hold is about 65%, while Middle East escalation and higher oil have kept a later-year hike on the table.
The US dollar is heading into a pivotal week near 101.8, just off a 15-month high, as investors focus on the Fed’s July 29 meeting as the main catalyst for currency direction, Action Forex reports.
Markets are pricing roughly a 65% chance of a hold, but renewed escalation in the Middle East has revived expectations for a later-year rate hike. The article also points to oil as the key wildcard, after the Iran ceasefire collapse and blockades affecting Persian Gulf shipping lanes pushed energy prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns.
The backdrop is also mixed on labor, with ADP data showing private-sector hiring slowed for a fourth straight week, even as jobless claims fell to a two-month low. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Congressional testimony reportedly offered limited new clarity, reiterating a focus on price stability without signaling the committee’s next move.
Technically, the piece says the US Dollar Index is trapped in a contested band between 100.00 and 102.00, supported by an ascending trendline and the 50-period EMA after bouncing about 6% from January’s 96-97 level. A confirmed break above 102.00 could shift the index toward 103-104 and eventually 106-107, while rejection near resistance could push it back to test 100.00 and possibly retest 96-97 if the selloff deepens.
Latest closeDollar index 101.47 ▲0.0%