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Australia CPI eyed for firmer inflation pace, with AUD near 0.6950

Markets expect annual inflation to rise to 4.0% and the RBA’s trimmed mean gauge to hold at 3.7%, ahead of an RBA backdrop that kept the cash rate at 4.35%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Australia’s June CPI is set for release Wednesday at 01:30 GMT, with forecasts calling for inflation to rise 4.0% year over year, matching May, and the monthly CPI to print 0.2% after May’s -0.7%. The ABS will also publish the Trimmed Mean CPI, the RBA’s preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to come in at 3.7% annually.

Ahead of the data, the Australian dollar was hovering around 0.6950 versus the US dollar, while the USD drew support from safety demand. The RBA last met in June and left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, after hiking rates three times earlier in 2026.

The RBA’s June statement pointed to disruption to global oil supply as a driver for inflation, noting that inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025. The article links current inflation pressures to the Middle East conflict, including limited transit through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran exchanged attacks, which leaves oil prices supported even as they have eased from monthly highs.

Oil remains a key risk, with WTI trading around $80 and Brent around $84, while global stocks have retreated and confidence has been pressured by concerns about returns tied to large AI investments. The piece also notes that the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its monetary policy later Wednesday, with investors widely anticipating a decision that could influence broader rate expectations.

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