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Australia wheat production forecast rises on improved early season
The USDA FAS projects output at 31.0 million tonnes for 2026-27, but warns that spring rainfall and El Niño-driven dryness could cut production versus the 2025-26 estimate.
Australia wheat production is forecast to reach 31.0 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year, according to the latest projection from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture.
The forecast increase reflects improved early-season conditions, with harvested area held steady at 11.8 million hectares, while the FAS said yields and spring rainfall will be the key drivers.
The agency also flagged weather risk, citing an El Niño event declared by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology that it expects to strengthen in the second half of 2026 and may bring drier-than-average conditions across eastern wheat-growing regions.
If the forecast materializes, output would be 14.0% smaller than the 2025-26 turnout estimate of 36.0 million tonnes, while exports are projected to rise to 24.5 million tonnes on higher carry-in stocks after weaker-than-expected export demand in 2025-26.
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