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TD Securities expects US Q2 GDP to slow as inflation cools
The firm also projects June PCE price inflation to turn softer, citing lower gasoline and services moderation, while core PCE is expected to rise 0.20% month over month.
TD Securities expects US gross domestic product to slow in Q2 to 1.0% quarter over quarter annualized, below the 2.0% consensus, even as it sees support from a recovering consumer and investment tied to the AI buildout.
In its view, net exports and inventories are the main drags on the headline growth pace, while spending outpacing income is expected to pressure the savings rate.
On inflation, the firm looks for June Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, to show soft headline and core prints, with gasoline weighing on the headline even after energy prices have rebounded.
TD Securities projects core PCE to advance 0.20% month over month and headline PCE to slip about -0.06% month over month, and it links the outlook to services moderating and lower gasoline prices offsetting other moves.
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