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Rupee gives back early gains versus dollar near 95.35

USD/INR sits near 95.35 after rebounding from 95.15, with oil’s sharp drop linked to renewed US-Iran ceasefire hopes and markets also watching Fed expectations.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

The Indian rupee weakened from most of its early gains against the US dollar near the close on Monday, with USD/INR around 95.35, after recovering from a more than three-week low near 95.15, according to FXStreet.

FXStreet attributed the currency move to the oil backdrop, saying the rupee strengthened as hopes grew for calmer US-Iran relations that pushed crude prices sharply lower. It pointed to an MCX Crude Oil contract expiring Aug. 19 trading more than 6% lower near Rs. 7,600.

FXStreet also tied the broader dollar tone to interest rate expectations, noting the US Dollar Index turned positive and rose to about 99.82 after a weak start in Europe. The outlet cited CME FedWatch odds of a 67.7% chance the Federal Reserve will hike rates at its September meeting.

Looking ahead, FXStreet said the RBI monetary policy decision on Wednesday is the key domestic event for the rupee, while investors globally will focus on US data including July Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and the ISM Manufacturing PMI later in the day. It added that the dollar/rupee remains bearish in the near term while trading below its 20-day exponential moving average.

Latest closeWTI crude $86.80 ▲3.8%|Dollar index 99.80 ▼0.2%

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