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Michael Terpin warns Bitcoin could fall about 30% further

Transform Ventures founder Michael Terpin says Bitcoin could trade near $43,500, implying a move into the $40,000s before a true bottom emerges.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Transform Ventures founder Michael Terpin told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin may have more downside before the market reaches a bottom. He said he is not yet confident that capitulation has occurred, adding that the hallmark of a real bottom is that it does not quickly rebound.

Terpin estimated Bitcoin could fall as much as 30% from its current level before stabilizing. He also suggested a larger drawdown scenario, arguing Bitcoin could end up about 66% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100, which he said would place the asset in the $40,000 range.

Under the 66% decline framework, Terpin projected Bitcoin could change hands around $43,500, a level the asset has not seen since early February 2024. He further tied traders’ difficulty in timing cycles to greed, pointing to past cycle behavior around Bitcoin’s November 2021 peak.

Cointelegraph reports Terpin said Bitcoin has gone through two consecutive cycles with weak macro conditions, and he referenced concerns about tariffs and other factors that he believes contributed to manipulation during the prior consolidation period.

Latest closeBitcoin $64,040.55 ▲0.9%

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