Crypto
Home›Crypto›Market Structure›Arthur Hayes warns AI credit boom could trigger Bitcoi…
Arthur Hayes warns AI credit boom could trigger Bitcoin rally to $1M
Hayes linked AI infrastructure lending to a 2008-style credit cycle and said BTC could trade between $60,000 and $70,000 before any liquidity-driven recovery, while he forecast ETH reaching $5,000 by year-end.
Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, said a debt-fueled AI infrastructure buildout could end like the 2008 credit bubble, with government liquidity efforts potentially lifting Bitcoin to $1 million or higher. In a Tuesday blog post, Hayes argued that investors have treated spending on data centers and power infrastructure as high-growth technology investment rather than leveraged real estate.
Hayes said lenders may keep funding excessive construction until a slowdown in AI capital expenditures exposes weaker borrowers, setting up what he framed as a credit-driven market shift rather than an earnings-driven one. He described the AI boom as a “credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000,” and added that BTC could remain between $60,000 and $70,000 before any credit cycle response, with possible downside to $50,000.
The outlook also included a view on Ether, with Hayes forecasting ETH could reach $5,000 by year-end. He said Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.
Hayes’ thesis builds on earlier remarks about how AI competition and listings could affect crypto liquidity. The Cointelegraph story also referenced a Reuters report that Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion to leases for data centers that have not yet started, nearly four times roughly $285 billion in already recorded lease liabilities.
Latest closeBitcoin $80,690.63 ▲2.2%|Ethereum $2,506.97 ▲1.0%