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Arthur Hayes warns AI credit boom could trigger Bitcoin rally to $1M

Hayes linked AI infrastructure lending to a 2008-style credit cycle and said BTC could trade between $60,000 and $70,000 before any liquidity-driven recovery, while he forecast ETH reaching $5,000 by year-end.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, said a debt-fueled AI infrastructure buildout could end like the 2008 credit bubble, with government liquidity efforts potentially lifting Bitcoin to $1 million or higher. In a Tuesday blog post, Hayes argued that investors have treated spending on data centers and power infrastructure as high-growth technology investment rather than leveraged real estate.

Hayes said lenders may keep funding excessive construction until a slowdown in AI capital expenditures exposes weaker borrowers, setting up what he framed as a credit-driven market shift rather than an earnings-driven one. He described the AI boom as a “credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000,” and added that BTC could remain between $60,000 and $70,000 before any credit cycle response, with possible downside to $50,000.

The outlook also included a view on Ether, with Hayes forecasting ETH could reach $5,000 by year-end. He said Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.

Hayes’ thesis builds on earlier remarks about how AI competition and listings could affect crypto liquidity. The Cointelegraph story also referenced a Reuters report that Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion to leases for data centers that have not yet started, nearly four times roughly $285 billion in already recorded lease liabilities.

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