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Bitcoin’s 500-day rule points to a late November buying window

CoinDesk notes analysts warn the pattern may be less reliable because spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional flows now outweigh the new supply created by miners.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

A once-popular bitcoin trading framework tied to the four-year halving cycle, often called the 500-day rule, is now pointing to a potential buying window in late November and an exit around mid-August 2029, according to CoinDesk.

The strategy, popularized by Pantera Capital in 2023, is based on the idea that investors historically profited by buying about 500 days before a halving and selling about 500 days after, reflecting past boom-and-bust periods driven by reduced new supply.

CoinDesk says analysts are cautioning that this cycle could differ this time, because U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors now dwarf new bitcoin created by miners, potentially weakening the halving’s price impact.

The report also reiterates the underlying mechanics of halvings, which occur every 210,000 blocks, cutting miner rewards per block by 50%, while acknowledging the debate over whether miner economics remain the dominant anchor for bitcoin’s longer-term market structure.

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