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Bitcoin’s bid hinges on 10-year real yields near 2.5% line

Bitcoin’s macro case centers on the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield, which Bitfinex cited at 2.41%, just below a threshold it says has held for most of the post-bitcoin era.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin’s bullish narrative is being tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield, which Bitfinex said has not sustained above 2.5% since before Bitcoin existed. In comments shared on X, the exchange pointed to the current level at 2.41%, described as nine basis points below 2.5%, arguing that there is no price history above that line to guide investors.

CoinDesk also highlighted how higher bond yields since the late February start of the Iran war have weakened the broader case for risk taking, even as equities continued to reach record highs. The divergence left bitcoin and gold trailing stocks.

In a separate essay referenced by CoinDesk, Arthur Hayes argued that the AI buildout should be viewed as a credit cycle, similar to 2008, rather than an earnings-driven technology boom. He said the credit break would come after accelerating capex slows, which he pegged for late 2027 into 2028, with lenders overexposed until the weakest AI debt cracks.

Hayes said any resulting damage would likely be backstopped by governments, with Washington and Beijing stepping in under national security concerns, and that additional liquidity would be the driver behind a bitcoin bottom. CoinDesk also reported that Zcash was leading the day’s crypto rebound, rising nearly 6% over 24 hours, while bitcoin and ether gained 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, with bitcoin trading near $64,200 on Wednesday.

Latest closeGold $4,133.60 ▲2.5%|Bitcoin $64,114.39 ▲0.1%

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