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Senators ask CFTC to tighten wildfire prediction market trading
Lawmakers cited Polymarket’s more than $1.2 million in wildfire-related trades tied to California fires at the start of 2025 and urged guardrails on both domestic and offshore platforms.
A group of Democratic senators has urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to curb wildfire prediction market trading, arguing the stakes are too high given record-breaking fire seasons and concerns about bad actors profiting from tragedy.
In a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, senators including Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar asked whether the agency plans to limit wildfire bets on both domestic and offshore platforms, pointing to offshore Polymarket wagers that totaled more than $1.2 million in trades about the Palisades and Eaton fires in California in early 2025.
The letter also referenced worsening fire conditions in North America, including smoke from devastating fires across Canada affecting air quality in U.S. population centers, and cited Oregon having about 1.7 million acres burned through late July, according to the Statesman Journal of Salem.
A Polymarket spokesperson said in an emailed statement that removing the markets would not prevent tragedies, only make timely, market-based information less accessible. Insurance Journal also noted the CFTC is reviewing public input on a proposal that would add guardrails to the platforms, which the agency considers derivatives exchanges, and that a newer platform called Wyldfyre has marketed wildfire trading for California with an emphasis on “play money only.”