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Gold rebounds as rate-hike odds cool and Brent prices ease
The move is being driven more by shifting Fed expectations than new safe-haven demand, with Brent crude sliding from above $100 toward the high-$70s.
Gold’s rebound has gained technical and macro confirmation, but whether it can extend toward 4,500 depends on three linked markets, Brent crude, US Treasury yields, and Fed rate expectations, according to Action Forex.
The outlet said the rally strengthened as markets rapidly priced out the likelihood of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. That shift, along with Treasury yields rolling over from recent highs and the dollar weakening, has created a more supportive environment for gold.
Action Forex also pointed to easing tensions tied to negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz as the key macro driver behind the change in interest-rate expectations. It said the latest advance followed Brent crude retreating from above $100 toward the high-$70s, which helped reduce concerns about another energy-driven inflation shock.
On the technical side, the metal broke back above its 55-day EMA and the daily MACD developed bullish divergence, a combination the outlet described as suggesting downside momentum has been exhausted. It added that markets are still not fully committing because progress in the negotiations remains uncertain, keeping gold, Brent, and yields closely connected.
Latest closeGold $4,308.50 ▲5.2%|WTI crude $75.12 ▼0.9%|Brent $79.49 ▲0.2%