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Processing bottlenecks could spark the next critical mineral supply shock

A GEM Mining Consulting study says disruptions to key inputs like sulphuric acid and equipment logistics could derail supply even while mines keep operating.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Mining

A GEM Mining Consulting study warns that the next critical mineral supply shock is more likely to originate in processing, chemical inputs, and logistics than at the mine itself. The report argues that usable supply can fail when value-chain chokepoints emerge, even if mining continues uninterrupted.

The study highlights how gaps in essential enablement can remove far more production than the visible size of a disruption would suggest. It cites vulnerabilities such as shortages of sulphuric acid, an unqualified anode production route, a missing furnace, equipment export restrictions, smelter closures, and constraints on power and water, and it builds stress scenarios to illustrate the potential scale of these disruptions.

Sulphuric acid is singled out as a major hidden vulnerability because it supports a range of processes, including copper solvent extraction-electrowinning, nickel high-pressure acid leach projects, cobalt co-production, hard-rock lithium conversion, rare-earth processing, and battery precursor manufacturing. GEM estimates that more than 15.0% of global primary copper production, about 3.6 million tonnes per year, depends on acid-leach routes.

Under a central stress case, a 90 day sulphuric acid disruption would expose roughly 111,000 tonnes of copper production, while a year-long disruption could affect about 94.0% of that depends, the study says. The broader takeaway, according to Mining.com, is that critical mineral supply risk should be assessed as a network, not solely by mining capacity.

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