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Brazil corn output forecast for 2026-27 edges down amid higher costs
The Foreign Agricultural Service trimmed the marketing year 2026-27 corn production forecast to 139.0 million tonnes, citing elevated fertilizer prices and El Niño related timing risks.
Brazil’s corn production for the 2026-27 marketing year is projected to be slightly lower than last year’s strong harvest, the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said, pointing to higher production costs, elevated fertilizer prices, and potential El Niño impacts.
In the FAS outlook, higher fertilizer costs could reduce the planted area of second-season corn, while the El Niño could delay the soybean harvest. The agency warned that later reaping may interfere with the optimal planting window for the next corn crop.
The FAS revised Brazil’s total corn output across the country’s three corn seasons for 2026-27 to 139.0 million tonnes, up 2.0% from the original forecast and just below the 139.5 million tonnes estimated for 2025-26. It also maintained 2026-27 corn planted area at 23.0 million hectares, while estimating 2025-26 planted area at 22.8 million hectares.
On the demand and trade side, the FAS raised its 2026-27 corn export forecast to 43 million tonnes. It said domestic corn consumption is projected at 100.0 million tonnes in 2026-27, up 3.0% year on year, supported by continued growth in ethanol and feed use.
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