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Copper rally nears record highs as traders front-run possible tariffs
ING says US copper imports topped 200,000 tonnes in July, while LME inventories have fallen to a five-month low and the cash-to-three-month spread is about $120/t in backwardation.
Copper is trading near record highs as traders accelerate shipments into the US ahead of potential import tariffs, tightening physical availability and drawing down London Metal Exchange inventories, according to ING via FXStreet.
ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey pointed to a stronger physical-market setup, including falling LME inventories to a five-month low and a wider cash-to-three-month spread, which is around $120/t backwardation.
The tightening backdrop is also linked to constrained mine supply and low treatment charges, while demand tied to electrification, power grid investment, and AI infrastructure remains supportive.
However, Manthey warned that a policy disappointment, or tariff measures that are delayed, narrower than expected, or exempt refined copper, could unwind part of the tariff-driven rally, especially if inventory flows normalise and investors unwind crowded positions.
Latest closeCopper $6.711 ▲0.1%