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Gold stays supported by discretionary demand and Asian buying
TD Securities says CTA positioning has plateaued, so further upside toward $4,600 per ounce may be needed before CTAs add length.
TD Securities strategists Ryan McKay and Bart Melek said gold remains supported by strong discretionary demand and continued buying from Asia, even as CTA, or commodity trading adviser, positioning has plateaued. They noted that CTAs would likely add length only if gold starts making another material move higher toward the $4,600 per ounce region, emphasizing that the bar remains high for new CTA participation.
The strategists added that weaker-than-expected US jobs data could ease Fed pricing pressures, particularly alongside subdued energy prices, which they said supports a stagflation narrative that can benefit gold. They pointed to continued Asian appetite for the yellow metal, including broad-based buying across cohorts on SHFE and continued ETF inflows.
FXStreet summarized the view alongside commentary that higher energy prices could be a hurdle, with US inflation data next week in focus. The note also said if markets become convinced Chair Warsh will not hike anytime soon, any upside in energy prices could strengthen the stagflation theme and provide additional fuel for gold bulls.
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