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NOAA keeps 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook below normal
NOAA forecasts 7 to 13 named storms, with 2 to 6 expected to become hurricanes, and assigns a 75% chance the season stays below normal.
Nearly halfway through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA’s forecast for below-normal activity remains unchanged, according to updates from forecasters at the National Weather Service. NOAA expects 7 to 13 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater, and 2 to 6 of those storms could become hurricanes, with 0 to 2 major hurricanes at 111 mph or higher.
NOAA’s probabilities call for a 75% chance of below-normal Atlantic activity, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of above-normal activity. The ranges apply across the full season, from June 1 through November 30, and include two storms already formed, Arthur and Bertha.
NOAA said inland rainfall is a key driver of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, citing Arthur as an example, and urged preparedness for projected impacts even if storms do not reach hurricane strength. The agency linked the outlook to El Niño strengthening, saying it increases wind shear that can limit storm formation and intensification in the Atlantic.
While El Niño suppresses Atlantic tropical activity, NOAA noted it can support storm development in the Pacific, leaving its Eastern Pacific outlook unchanged at 15 to 22 named storms, above the average range. So far in the Atlantic, NOAA reports seven named storms, with two becoming hurricanes, including one major hurricane.