Global Markets
Home›Global Markets›Trade & Tariffs›TSR cuts 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast, warns of be…
TSR cuts 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast, warns of below-average season
The update projects 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, down from its earlier July forecast of 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has lowered its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing conditions in the sub-tropical Atlantic that look less favorable than they did a month earlier.
In TSR’s latest update, the season is expected to include 10 named tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, and only 1 major hurricane, with an ACE Index of 55. That marks a reduction across all figures versus TSR’s early July update, when it raised its outlook to 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, alongside a slightly higher ACE Index of 67.
TSR said the August forecast also points to activity well below the 1991-2020 average, where the typical level is 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with ACE of 122. The forecast window runs from June 1 to November 30, 2026, using data through the end of July 2026 and incorporating expected sea surface temperature and trade wind anomalies for August to September.
TSR noted that its lowered outlook comes as the season moves through its accepted peak period, and it referenced two named storms that have already occurred so far this season, Arthur and Beryl. The forecaster also pointed to a strong El Niño expected to persist through the rest of summer and autumn 2026, while reducing the storm-forming expectations based on the more recent sub-tropical Atlantic conditions.