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US Dollar Index set for key NFP test as rate bets shift

Economists expect July non-farm payrolls to rise by about 95,000, with the unemployment rate seen edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is heading into a fresh volatility catalyst, with traders focused on the July non-farm payrolls release due at 12:30 PM UTC. Action Forex said the data will likely shape near-term expectations for Fed policy and therefore direction for the greenback.

Economists surveyed by the outlet are looking for about 95,000 jobs added in July, following June’s weaker 57,000 print. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.4% from 4.3%.

Action Forex noted the Fed’s July meeting kept rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% but delivered a hawkish tone, with three policymakers pushing for a hike rather than discussing cuts. That backdrop has supported the dollar even as recent JOLTS data pointed to cooling labor demand and futures markets trimmed the probability of a September hike to around 59%, down from 67% earlier.

Technically, the outlet said the DXY has been consolidating for nearly two months after its 2026 recovery, trading within levels defined by trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. It highlighted that a break above the descending trendline and the 0.5 retracement near 100.53 could open further upside toward higher retracement levels, while a drop below the ascending trendline and 99.60 support would weaken the recovery attempt and increase the odds of a deeper pullback.

Latest closeDollar index 99.98 ▲0.3%

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