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USD/JPY recovery faces asymmetric NFP risk, with downside seen toward 155
After last week’s confirmed US-Japan intervention, a strong nonfarm payrolls print may face profit-taking near 160, while a weak report could point more directly back to 155.
USD/JPY has rebounded about one-third of the losses tied to last week’s rare US-Japan currency intervention, but Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to create an asymmetric setup for traders.
Action Forex reports that because both Washington and Tokyo quickly confirmed the intervention and delivered unusually forceful messaging, traders are likely to manage positions differently than in a typical payrolls reaction. In this context, a stronger NFP could push the pair higher, but approaching the 160 area may attract profit-taking due to intervention risk.
The same framework is described as less restrictive on the downside. The outlet says a weak payrolls print has a clearer, undeterred path back toward 155, since the deterrence effect from last week’s actions may make extended USD/JPY longs less attractive even without another intervention immediately.
The analysis also links the timing to a heavy US data week, including ISM surveys and the employment report, arguing authorities likely weighed the possibility that strong data could revive Fed hike expectations and rebuild upward pressure on USD/JPY.
Latest closeUSD/JPY 158.52 ▲0.6%