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ECB survey forecasters see euro area inflation at 2.0% by 2028

The ECB’s survey also projects unemployment averaging 6.3% in 2026 and 2027 before easing to 6.1% in the longer term.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Economy

The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2026 shows headline inflation, measured by the HICP, expected to be 2.7% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028.

Excluding food and energy, HICPX inflation is expected at 2.4% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028, with longer term expectations for 2031 held at 2.0% for both headline and HICPX inflation.

Survey respondents revised headline inflation expectations up by 0.1 percentage points for 2027 and, for 2026, the HICPX forecast was revised up by 0.2 percentage points, while growth and unemployment outlooks shifted in the opposite direction.

The forecasters expect real GDP growth of 0.6% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.3% in 2028, while unemployment is seen at 6.3% in 2026 and 2027, declining to 6.1% in the longer term, with risks for inflation tilted to the upside in 2026.

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