Home›Forex›Major Pairs›Weak July jobs report flips September Fed odds, but do…

Weak July jobs report flips September Fed odds, but dollar holds

Markets shifted toward a September hold after July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000, yet the 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 4.6% and the Dollar Index held around 99.41 support as oil risks linger.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Action Forex said July’s unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls report reshaped expectations for the Fed’s September meeting, moving pricing away from another hike and toward a hold. It cited nonfarm employment contracting by 23,000 in July and pointed to downward revisions to May and June, which it said suggested the labor market deterioration had been developing more broadly than previously understood.

The outlet linked the partial reaction to a separate macro risk, noting that the Middle East crisis remained unresolved and Brent stayed above $80. It said that left inflation risks elevated, which helped prevent a full dovish repricing even as labor data made further hikes harder to justify.

According to Action Forex, the result was an uneven market response. It said the 10-year Treasury yield held around the critical 4.60 area and the Dollar Index stopped its post-NFP slide near 99.41 support, while US equities showed only restrained enthusiasm despite reaching records earlier in the week.

The report also said the Fed expectations change faced a growth headwind, with a weaker Q2 GDP print and the jobs report raising concerns about momentum. It added that the Friday data helped raise the hurdle for another hike, keeping the path ahead close to a coin flip in market pricing.

Latest closeBrent $83.46 |Dollar index 99.98 ▲0.3%

More like this

Sources