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TD Cowen pegs Crypto Clarity Act passage at 25% for September

TD Securities expects a 75% probability the Clarity Act fails to become law this fall, with the Senate vote pushed to September.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Regulation

TD Securities, via a note cited by Bitcoin Magazine, said the long-awaited crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, is not dead but faces a low chance of passing this fall. The bank assigned a 25% probability the bill becomes law in September, after a delay that pushed a planned vote to lawmakers returning from recess.

The note said the bill now likely will not reach passage before the summer, with its key consideration effectively moved into September. TD Cowen also cited Democratic stalling concerns and the possibility of procedural moves that could prevent the measure from advancing.

One scenario the bank highlighted involves cloture being approved initially in September, followed by Republicans blocking Democratic amendments tied to ethics and AML sections, which could then lead Democrats to sink a second cloture vote. It added that another likely outcome is that no cloture vote occurs at all.

If enacted, the Clarity Act would create a federal rulebook for U.S. cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin Magazine also noted that the latest draft includes language banning government officials from promoting or profiting from crypto, and that the bill has support from major financial institutions and law enforcement groups.

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