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Oil holds firm as US-Iran deal optimism fades, ING says
ING notes flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue despite disruptions, and Middle East tension plus tight refined product stocks skew oil risks to the upside into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said oil prices are firmer as optimism for a potential US-Iran deal fades, leaving supply risks elevated.
They pointed to continued shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions, arguing that Middle East tensions and tight refined product stocks tilt risks to the upside for oil heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Patterson also said the oil market remains highly headline-driven, with enthusiasm around negotiations often dissipating quickly and prices then whipsawing as expectations change.
Separately, FXStreet’s wrap noted that renewed oil strength and inflation concerns were lifting the US dollar against other assets, alongside investors looking to Wednesday’s US CPI data for the next key catalyst.