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Dollar rebounds as Treasury yields rise and Fed hike bets firm
The piece says the probability of a September Fed tightening has risen to 50% after a dip, and that USDJPY is near 160 where intervention risk is expected to increase.
A report from ActionForex says the US dollar index is rebounding, driven by a rally in Treasury bond yields amid Middle East tensions and rising expectations that the Fed will tighten policy in September.
The outlet notes that the market-implied probability for a September tightening has increased to 50% after falling to 43% following the latest US jobs report, while futures still price in a 33% chance of more than one hike in 2026.
ActionForex also points to an upcoming release of US July inflation data as a key focus, citing potential downside CPI drivers such as productivity running ahead of labor costs, a waning tariff impact, and lower oil prices versus May.
On safe-haven positioning, the outlet argues gold could benefit from weaker CPI and supports the view that coordinated currency intervention by the US and Japan reduces the odds of USDJPY returning to 40-year highs, even as the rate differential and Japan’s energy-import reliance keep pushing USDJPY higher toward 160.
Latest closeGold $4,430.80 ▲1.6%|Dollar index 99.81 ▲0.0%