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EUR/USD holds near mid-1.1500s ahead of US CPI and German HICP
EUR/USD is capped by the 100-day SMA near 1.1567 as oil-driven inflation fears keep expectations elevated for US rate hikes into year-end.
The EUR/USD pair was unable to build momentum, trading around the mid-1.1500s during the Asian session and remaining inside a range seen over the past week, according to FXStreet.
Traders are waiting for fresh signals from major inflation releases, with US CPI due later today and the US PPI scheduled for Thursday, alongside Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July. Those data points are expected to shape the outlook for the US Federal Reserve, which in turn influences near-term USD demand and the direction of EUR/USD.
FXStreet also pointed to oil and Middle East risk as a key driver of currency conditions. It said crude prices jumped to a one-and-a-half-week high after an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader said the Strait of Hormuz would not be opened until US demands are met, and it linked further pressure to escalated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. Higher energy prices are seen as raising war-risk premiums and renewing concerns about inflation, supporting the US dollar.
On positioning, the outlet noted that EUR/USD remains capped beneath the 100-day simple moving average near 1.1567 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June decline around 1.1562. It cited initial support near the 38.2% retracement at 1.1506, followed by the 23.6% retracement near 1.1437, as levels where buyers could attempt to stabilize spot pricing.
Latest closeWTI crude $83.42 ▲1.6%|EUR/USD 1.155 ▼0.1%