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IEA cuts 2026 oil supply forecast amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions
The IEA expects global supply to average about 102.0 million bpd in 2026, a drop of 4.3 million bpd, while demand falls by 1.6 million bpd in 2026.
The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts, citing shipping disruptions linked to the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The IEA now expects global oil supply to fall by an average of 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026 to around 102 million bpd, and it expects supply to rebound next year by 8.3 million bpd to 110.3 million bpd.
On the demand side, the agency forecast calls for world oil demand to decline by 1.6 million bpd in 2026, describing elevated fuel prices as adding further downward pressure on oil use.
While the IEA projects the market to return to surplus toward the end of this year, it warned that risks remain substantial, including heightened urgency around reopening the strait as previously available inventory buffers are depleting.