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Tanker data challenges U.S. claim of normalized Middle East oil flows

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Strait of Hormuz was seeing nearly 9 million barrels per day on a seven-day average, but ship-tracking analysts say the figures do not align with ongoing transit constraints.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Oil tank movement data and analysts have raised questions about a U.S. claim that Middle East crude flows have normalized despite continued restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz, according to OilPrice. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright posted on X that the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is “currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day,” and he also cited Sunday alone, when “over 20 million barrels” left the Arabian gulf region, a level he said is above pre-conflict averages. However, OilPrice reports that analysts and tanker traffic monitoring services cannot reconcile those numbers with evidence that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, including U.S. Energy Information Administration commentary in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. In the same period, the EIA said it increased estimates for Middle East shut-in crude oil production in coming months due to continued severe constraints on Hormuz transits assumed to persist through August, and Kpler’s Matt Smith told CNN that it is not possible to reconcile the disparity between observed data and Wright’s quoted figures.

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