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Bitcoin decline mirrors past halving-cycle pattern, data suggests

VanEck’s GEO framework shows two of three signals neutral and points to early bottom-forming conditions, while CryptoQuant says long-term holders are in deeper unrealized losses than the market overall.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin has dropped sharply from its roughly $126,080 October record high to recent trading in the low-$60,000s, a decline of nearly 50% that has weighed on sentiment, according to Bitcoin Magazine. The outlet cites a Thursday note from asset manager VanEck saying the slump aligns with Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, when mining rewards are periodically cut in half, tightening new supply and often preceding a bear phase. VanEck said this downturn appears more like a recurring feature of Bitcoin’s market structure than a deviation from it. VanEck’s GEO framework, which tracks Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity, shows two of three signals reading neutral, with ecosystem leverage in constructive territory. The firm described this as early evidence of a bottom starting to form. CryptoQuant’s separate research also points in a similar direction, highlighting on-chain data where long-term holders, typically the most loss-tolerant cohort, are experiencing deeper unrealized losses than the market overall using adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). MorenoDV noted that this pattern has appeared at every prior major cycle bottom, though CryptoQuant warned against calling a bottom too soon, saying the long-term-holder metric often falls to much deeper negative extremes before the true low arrives.

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