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Bitcoin’s drop mirrors prior halving cycles, suggesting a possible early bottom

VanEck said its GEO framework shows two of three signals neutral, with ecosystem leverage constructive, while CryptoQuant flagged long-term holders taking deeper unrealized losses than the broader market.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin is trading in the low-$60,000s after sliding from a record high of roughly $126,080 in October, a decline of nearly 50% that has pressured sentiment, though market observers say the move resembles prior behavior around Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, which tightens new supply.

Asset manager VanEck, in a Thursday report, argued the slump aligns with historical patterns that often precede bear phases rather than signaling a structural break. VanEck’s GEO framework, which tracks Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity, currently shows two of three signals reading neutral, with ecosystem leverage in constructive territory, which the firm said points to early signs of a bottom forming.

Separate research from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant similarly focused on on-chain trends. It highlighted adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data indicating long-term Bitcoin holders, a cohort described as typically steadier and more loss-tolerant, are experiencing deeper unrealized losses than the overall market.

CryptoQuant urged caution, noting that in past cycles the long-term holder metric fell to much deeper negative extremes before a true low was reached. The firm said Bitcoin could still face one more sharp capitulation move unless stronger institutional demand and a more resilient holder base allow this cycle to bottom out with less damage than previous ones.

Latest closeBitcoin $81,906.63 ▼1.4%

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