Home›Crypto›Market Structure›High Treasury yields weaken the case for $1 million bi…

High Treasury yields weaken the case for $1 million bitcoin forecasts

CoinDesk points to a breakdown in bitcoin’s price versus the 30-year Treasury yield, arguing that opportunity cost can limit upside when long bond yields stay above 5%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

CoinDesk argues that many bullish bitcoin forecasts, including a renewed path toward $1 million, may be overstating what is realistic because they often ignore opportunity cost from elevated long-term U.S. Treasury yields.

The outlet says high yields on non-yielding assets like bitcoin reduce incentives to rotate money into crypto when investors can earn a comparatively “risk-free” return in Treasuries. It highlights that bitcoin’s ratio to the 30-year Treasury yield failed to set a new high during the 2025 bull run, unlike bitcoin’s dollar price, and that this ratio has broken down through a multi-year support level.

CoinDesk also notes that the “million-dollar” call has resurfaced with new commentary, citing Bitwise’s view that bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within a decade. The piece frames those targets as relying mainly on assumptions about capital flow from gold or other large pools of assets, including pension funds, into bitcoin.

As supporting context, CoinDesk points to the 30-year Treasury yield clearing 5% this year and sitting at its highest level since 2007, and it claims this environment has been a drag on bitcoin’s upside. The article also describes a divergence between bitcoin’s spot price and its level adjusted for the cost of long-duration capital, with bitcoin reaching about $126,000 in 2025 while falling short of its 2021 peak on that yield-adjusted measure.

Latest closeGold $4,467.10 ▲1.9%|Bitcoin $63,344.27 ▼0.1%

More like this

Sources