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Midwest severe storms could drive $5.1 billion-plus insured losses
Guy Carpenter estimates the Aug. 9 to 11 outbreak could become a top-10 severe weather loss, with maximum winds above 90 mph in Chicago’s metro area and 97 mph reported in Sugar Grove, Illinois.
Severe thunderstorms that hit the US Midwest from Aug. 9 to Aug. 11 are expected to generate large insured losses, with reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter saying the event could rank among the top-10 industry severe weather losses. In its early August global cat activity report, Guy Carpenter estimated the overall cost to the insured market could be around $5.1 billion or higher. The storms were linked to a slow-moving cold front affecting Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and nearby states, with damaging convective storm conditions including high winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.
The broker pointed to the Chicago, Illinois metropolitan region, where reported maximum wind speeds in the southern area were above 90 mph. Guy Carpenter said the strongest wind gust of 97 mph was recorded in Sugar Grove, Illinois, a Chicago suburb, and that other states saw gusts reaching 60 to 80+ mph.
Guy Carpenter also cited hail up to 3.5 inches, isolated tornadoes, and rainfall of 2 to 3 inches per hour, with multi-day totals potentially exceeding 9 inches. It added that three tornadoes have been confirmed in Illinois, and noted that with more field surveys underway, Illinois has recorded over 200 tornadoes in 2026, placing it second to Texas for a year record, and the recent string of US severe weather could leave insurers seeking additional reinsurance capacity.
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