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Turkish lira seen weakening further versus the US dollar
Commerzbank projects USD/TRY to climb from 48.00 in September 2026 to 57.00 by December 2027, citing inflation and a deteriorating current account despite tight policy.
Commerzbank FX analyst Tatha Ghose said the Turkish lira’s weakness against the US dollar is likely to persist, pointing to ongoing inflation pressure and a renewed current account deterioration as key drivers. FXStreet reports the bank expects further depreciation even as Turkey maintains tight monetary policy and continues heavy FX intervention.
In Commerzbank’s forecasts, USD/TRY is expected to rise from 48.00 in September 2026 to 57.00 by December 2027. The note links the outlook to Turkey’s exposure to energy imports and its trade and financial connections to the Middle East, which it said worsen balance of payments vulnerabilities.
The analysis also highlighted that Turkey’s central bank policy rate is 37.0%, but funding has been pushed toward the 40.0% overnight lending facility because the weekly repo window has remained largely closed after an “Iran shock.” Commerzbank argued that reopening one-week repo funding would effectively lower funding costs, which it described as tantamount to a rate cut.
Commerzbank said the lira’s managed decline has required frequent intervention, with defense costs becoming unsustainable, and that international reserve gains earlier in the year were linked to rising gold prices rather than broad FX reserve improvement. It added that the current account, after improving in 2024 to 2025, began to re-widen in recent quarters, before the war started, in its view due in part to real interest rates dropping too soon.
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