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China’s US soybean buying accelerates ahead of Trump, Xi meeting
StoneX said the pace could leave China at 50% to 60% of its 25 million tonne annual soybean target by late September, with higher prices and tighter US supplies possible.
In May, President Donald Trump announced a $17 billion agricultural deal with China that included commitments to buy US farm commodities, with a target of 25 million tonnes of soybeans annually. After purchases trickled in at first, buying accelerated this summer, according to World Grain, and China is expected to keep purchasing US soybeans aggressively ahead of a planned September meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said contacts in China believe Beijing intends to follow through. He added that the current pace could put China at roughly 50% to 60% of the 25 million tonne soybean target by the time Trump and Xi meet in late September, and that China could be on a faster track than an earlier internal expectation of reaching 15 million metric tons by Dec. 31.
Suderman said the buying could require global soybean trade flows to redirect to accommodate additional US demand, raising the prospect of tighter US supplies and higher prices. He also argued that paying extra for US soybeans would be a relatively low cost compared with the broader concessions Beijing is seeking from Washington.
The article also notes that Brazil has been expanding sales beyond China as additional US supply moves toward the Chinese market. Brazil’s soybean exports rose more than 8% in the first half of 2026, while China’s share fell to 69% from 75% a year earlier, though China still took 48.3 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans in the period, suggesting the shift reflects a wider buyer base rather than weaker Chinese demand. World Grain added that trade negotiations continue as China introduced countermeasures in early August, including tighter export controls on drones and sanctions on several US companies.
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