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Copper rally loses momentum as China import premium slips
Commerzbank flagged LME copper stocks falling for a 40th straight day, but said softer Chinese Yangshan import premiums and upcoming data could shift the outlook.
Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht said the recent copper rally is losing momentum, citing signals from China and the market’s near term outlook. While LME copper stocks have continued to decline for a 40th consecutive day, the rally appears to have run out of steam, she said.
Lambrecht pointed to Yangshan’s copper import premium, a gauge of Chinese import demand, which retreated from multi year highs. The premium had climbed to USD 115 per ton last month, then slipped back below USD 100, a move she described as cautionary for the world’s biggest copper consumer.
She also highlighted potential catalysts ahead, including the International Copper Study Group report expected between the 20th and 24th of the month. That release will include supply and demand figures for the first half of the year, which the analyst said could help explain the recent price trend.
In addition, Lambrecht noted falling LME stocks and a slightly lower production forecast from a major producer attributed to weather conditions. She also pointed to a White House event on domestic critical mineral supply that could coincide with a decision on US copper tariffs pending since the end of June.
Latest closeCopper $6.606 ▲0.2%