Bonds & Rates
Home›Bonds & Rates›Economy›10-year yield closes at 4.68% as 10-2 curve remains wa…
10-year yield closes at 4.68% as 10-2 curve remains watched
The 10-2 spread was negative for a stretch from July 5, 2022 to August 26, 2024, a period often cited as a recession warning signal.
The 10-year Treasury yield ended August 14, 2026 at 4.68%, while the 2-year note finished at 4.17%, keeping the yield curve closely in focus for recession timing. ETF Trends also highlighted that an inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term yields fall below shorter-term rates.
ETF Trends said the 10-2 spread is widely treated as a leading indicator, with recessions historically beginning anywhere from 18 to 92 weeks after the spread first turns negative. The outlet noted that one brief negative episode in 1998 did not lead to a recession, and that the 2009 downturn involved multiple periods of inversion before the curve eventually normalized.
Most recently, the 10-2 spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022 to August 26, 2024, and it was last negative on September 5, 2024. Based on the starting point of the first negative reading, the average lead time cited is 48 weeks, or about 11 months.
ETF Trends also referenced the 10-3 month spread as another yield curve measure, saying recession lead times after it turns negative range from 34 to 69 weeks. The outlet added that the 10-3mo view also shows a false positive in 1998, and that the spread was negative from October 25, 2022 to December 12, 2024 before swinging more recently between positive and negative territory.