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Bitcoin faces downside risk as US 30-year yields hit 25-year highs
The US Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at a 5.216% yield on Aug. 13, lifting long-term rates that can raise the opportunity cost of holding BTC.
Bitcoin is seeing fresh macro and technical warning signs as surging long-term US borrowing costs coincide with a bearish chart setup, according to a Yahoo Finance analysis. The outlet points to higher opportunity costs for speculative assets when investors can earn more in long-dated Treasuries.
Yahoo Finance cites the US Treasury’s Aug. 13 sale of $25 billion in 30-year bonds at a 5.216% yield, the highest borrowing cost for that tenor since 2001. The piece says elevated long-term Treasury yields can tighten financial conditions across markets by making risk assets less attractive, a dynamic it links to weaker demand for BTC.
On the technical side, the article describes Bitcoin consolidating within a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart after a steep sell-off in June. It notes that BTC was trading near $62,850 on Aug. 14, positioned close to the lower support trendline, and says a confirmed breakdown could open the door to a measured downside target near $45,235, roughly 28% to 30% below current levels.
The analysis also highlights that BTC is trading below key daily moving averages and that the daily relative strength index is near 42, indicating bearish momentum without being deeply oversold. It adds that the US federal deficit reached $1.799 trillion in the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, and says Fitch expects the broader government deficit to remain around 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and 2027.
It further references that US 30-year real yields are near 3%, their highest in roughly 18 years, and quotes BlackRock strategist Vivek Paul describing the environment as a competition for capital. The outlet frames the combination of macro pressure and the technical setup as keeping downside risk elevated for bitcoin.
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